Brenda's Tucson Housing Market Report
December 2012

Happy Holidays to All - Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

2012 Finishing Strong with December Starting off Very Busy

Average Days On Market = 52 ~ Sales Price as a % of List Price = 96.74%

December started off with a bang, offers flying left and right. Wow, who would have expected it. December is usually pretty tame especially the last 2 weeks. This year we got slammed early, although we still expect the rest of December to be flat with the holidays happening.

Tucson remains in a Sellers Market with low inventories and steadily increasing prices. We are seeing some hesitation among buyers with regard to the mess in Washington and the pending "Fiscal Cliff". Now that the elections are over it looks like more of the same gridlock back there, what a joke. Whatever happens we're all going to be paying more taxes in some form or another in the coming years.

Sellers are trying to get deals closed this year to avoid higher capital gains that are bound to happen next year. Probably too late to hop on that train unless you're a cash buyer that can close prior to December 31. Then you might get a good deal if you act real quick.

As soon as Washington gets it's act together back there and does something about the "Fiscal Cliff" things should get busy here. Doesn't matter much what they do, just do something! The market hates uncertainty and bogs down in the face of that. Once there is a clear direction buyers will get more active.

Tucson Active Listings: Active listings now stand at 4,430 a slight increase over last month and about 15% less than at this time last year.

New Listings Up: There were 1,591 New Listings in November, a Decrease of 339 units from October. Again, very typical as we get closer to the holidays.

Average Sales Price: The November average sales price was $183,539, up 15.21% from $158,434 in November 2011. Another month of year over year price increases. This trend should continue.

Days on Market: Now sits at 52, up from 49 last month. This time last year it took an average of 78 days to sell a listing here. Still a sellers market so make good offers buyers. There are no killer deals here anymore.

Feel free to contact us with your questions. We're easy to talk to and we can answer any questions you might have about current market conditions, interest rates or where home prices are headed. If you're interested in talking about listing your home we'd be happy to provide our recommendations on how best to proceed.

Key prior month statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtor’s December 2012 Report show:

Total Tucson Home Sales Units: 994, Decreased 2.07% from November of 2011. Decreased 7.45% from last month.

Total Tucson Homes Under Contract: 2,237, Increased 12.07% from November of 2011. Decreased 5.37% from last month.

Tucson Median Sale Price: $144,627 Up 18.55% from November 2011.
Oro Valley Median Sales Price: $254,000 Up 8% from November 2011.
Catalina Foothills Median Sales Price: $313,500 Up 11% from November 2011.

Total Tucson Active Listings: 4,430 Down 14.66% from 5,191 in November of 2011.
Northwest Tucson Active Listings: 1,250 Up 125 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills Active Listings: 492, Up 8 units from last month.

Total Tucson New Listings: 1,591, Up from 1,099 in November of 2011.
Northwest Tucson New Listings: 443, Down 54 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills New Listings: 150, Down 35 from last month.

Some quick conclusions we can draw from these Tucson home sales statistics are:

Positive Market Indicators this month: Average Sales Prices are up year over year & month over month, Median Sales Price up year over year & month over month, and Units Under Contract are Up year over year. Days on Market remain low at 52.

Negative Market Indicators this month: Units sold are down slightly this month, probably due to such limited supplies of inventory.

Market Outlook: What we said last month: "Looking beyond November, we expect December to be busy for the first two weeks". Boy was it ever. We sold 7 homes in the first 9 days!

December is starting off very strong but we think the 2nd half of December to be slow. We still expect January to pick up strong as we enter our prime selling season here. Although there is concern, we don't expect the Fiscal Cliff issue to have much impact on the market here.

Here's a nice graphic from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showing Arizona having the highest year over year housing price increases in the nation. Looks like we are indeed on the road to recovery.

Inventory remains tight: Inventory sits at 4,430 active listings. Here's the December Heat Map.

Interest rates remain at historic lows, however the Fiscal Cliff issue does have a potential impact on interest rates. Inflation is coming, that's for sure, just depends on what they do with the Fiscal Cliff.

If we end up going over the cliff, the economy will slow dramatically, possibly even going back into recession in which case interest rates will remain low. If they come up with some solution involving increased taxes & some spending cuts we expect inflation worries to start pushing interest rates back up very quickly. Watch out for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2013.

If middle class America thinks they're gonna get a pass on this one, boy are they wrong. Higher taxes and higher inflation is going to hit everybody. Count on it.

The Tucson Market Reports below will give you a detailed look inside the current Tucson Housing Market.

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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