Brenda's Tucson Housing Market Report
January 2012

Active Listings Reach Multi Year Lows!

We're under 5,000 units for the first time since 2004

Average Days On Market = 78 ~ Sales Price as a % of List Price = 94.42%

The economy is slowly but steadily improving. Inflation now stands at 8.5% down from over 9% just a few months ago. Consumers are spending more at the retail level and housing prices are discounted so much that investors are flooding in and snapping up deals in almost every distressed market in the country.

Locally things are starting to turn around also. It's true that prices are still creeping down, but buyers are out in force as evidenced by year over year increases in units sold for the last 7 months here in Tucson. Additionally the Average Sales Price here has increased month over month for the last 3 months and we hope to see this continue as we enter our prime spring selling season.

Active Inventory Below 5,000 Units: We were surprised by this one, we didn't expect to see this drop in inventory until some time late next spring but it is good news for a firming of prices. Less inventory coupled with increased buyer activity of course means more competition and ultimately rising prices.

New Listings Declining: There were only 956 New Listings in December. This is the lowest number of new listings in December in the last 10 years! The last time we saw less than 1,000 new listings in December was way back in 2000.

Average Sales Price: We watch this key statistic closely. Year over year we are still seeing declines but month over month we are seeing more and more Increases. We expect to see this indicator "cross over" sometime in 2012 and begin showing year over year increases as well month over month increases. There will probably be a couple of "false starts" on this one but is heading our way.

Days on Market: Now sits at 78. This time last year it took 106 days to sell a home here. We expect to see this number drop due to the reduced number of listings coupled with anticipated strong spring sales.

Feel free to contact us with your questions. We're easy to talk to and we can answer any questions you might have about current market conditions, interest rates or where home prices are headed. If you're interested in talking about listing your home we'd be happy to provide our recommendations on how best to proceed.

Key prior month statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtor’s January 2012 Report show:

Total Tucson Home Sales Units: 961, Increased 5.95% from December 2010. Decreased 5.25% from last month.

Total Tucson Homes Under Contract: 1,903, Increased 8.13% from December 2010. Decreased 4.66% from last month.

Tucson Average Sale Price: $161,471 Down 12.37% from $186,399 in 2010.
Northwest Tucson Average Listing Price: $196,657 Down from $217,272 last month.
Catalina Foothills Average Listing Price: $473,602 Up from $360,632 last month.

Total Tucson Active Listings: 4,911 Down 28.40% from 6,859 in December of 2010.
Northwest Tucson Active Listings: 1,325 Down 79 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills Active Listings: 516, Down 24 units from last month.

Total Tucson New Listings: 956, Down 115 units from 1,071 in December of 2010.
Northwest Tucson New Listings: 223, Down 128 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills New Listings: 81, Down 31 units from last month.

Some quick conclusions we can draw from these Tucson home sales statistics are:

Positive Market Indicators this month: The big news this month is we are now under 5,000 active listings for the first time since September of 2004! Units Sold increasing Year over Year (5.95% this month), New Listings down year over year (down 10.74% this month) Average Sales Prices have increased month over month since August. Cash Investors are very active in this market as well as almost all depressed national markets. This will help to move distressed property's thru the system faster.

Negative Market Indicators this month: The only negative in this market is that prices are still creeping down and that's actually a positive as it improves the "Affordability Index". Bank Loans are still very tight but the pendulum should start to slowly swing back toward the middle this coming year.

Market Outlook: December was typical, good but not fantastic. Holiday activity always cuts into real estate sales this time of year. We are excited about the next several months as we kick off our spring selling season. Expect to see strong sales and a firming up of prices over the next few months. All the upcoming political rhetoric might even help as people begin to actually believe some of the multitude of promises that will be forthcoming as the candidates begin to campaign in earnest.

Interesting news from up the road: : "Phoenix-area housing may be on the mend" Data from the end of 2011 suggest that a housing-market recovery has begun in metro Phoenix. read full article

Signs of what's to come: "10 Cities Where List Prices Soared Last Month" Median list prices nationwide have risen 4.05 percent on a year-over-year basis, according to November housing data of 146 metro areas read full article

When the Prophet Says Buy..... BUY!: John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a bestselling author and economic consultant. When it comes to the housing market he is also a prophet. When housing prices started to skyrocket in 2003, he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market correctly warning us that a real estate bubble was forming.

Then in January 2006, he called the absolute peak of home prices in the US by releasing a new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. Mr. Talbott, the person who accurately predicted the housing bubble and its bust, now has a new prediction..... IT IS THE TIME TO BUY A HOME!

In a recent article, Homes..... Buy Now!, Talbott simply explains: "I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt."

Bottom Line:..... If the person who called the real estate bubble and its bust says now is the time to buy, we believe it is time to buy.

The Tucson Market Reports below will give you a detailed look inside the current Tucson Housing Market.

Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report - January 2012

Catalina Foothills Housing Report - January 2012

Oro Valley Housing Report - January 2012

2010 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

Brenda's 2010 Year End Tucson Housing Report

Tucson Housing Market Report Archives

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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