Brenda's Tucson Housing Market Report
November 2012

Onward and Upward, Life Returns To Normal After Elections

Market Continues Improvement, Mortgage Rates Remain at Historic Lows

Average Days On Market = 49 ~ Sales Price as a % of List Price = 97.23%

November is Glorious in Southern Arizona. The weather is beautiful, the golf courses are filling up and we're in our best time of year now. A little more inventory to look at than recent months as more new listings coming on compared to recent months. Buyers still need to make good solid offers, sellers are not responding to low ball offers.

Still a Sellers Market with low inventories. but, it's also a Buyers Market because of the historic Low Interest Rates. We are seeing a slight increase in inventory as we predicted last month. This is normal for this time of year. Buyers, if you see something you like, don't mess around, get your offer in and don't delay. Nice homes are now often receiving multiple offers and those who dither around lose out.

The Elections are over...YAHOO! Thank goodness that big circus if over. No matter if your guy won or not, I'm sure you're all as happy as we are that it's finally over. As stated before, we don't believe the elections will not have much effect on the local markets.

We remain in a Slow recovery mode and that's not likely to change much. It appears that it will be "Business as Usual" in Washington. We do hope however, that there can be some type of agreement on the looming "Fiscal Cliff" that's right around the corner. If those guys back there don't address that issue in a timely manner it will Definitely have an effect on the housing markets nationwide as we will probably dip back into another recession.

Tucson Active Listings: Active listings now stand at 4,195, a slight increase over last month and about 1,000 units less than at this time last year.

New Listings Up: There were 1,930 New Listings in October, an Increase of 298 units from September. This is normal for this time of year and will probably start slowly declining again over the next few months.

Average Sales Price: The October average sales price was $175,850, up 15.83% from $151,812 in October 2011. Another month of year over year price increases. This trend should continue.

Days on Market: Now sits at 49, up from 45 last month. This time last year it took an average of 74 days to sell a listing here. Again, it's a sellers market so make good offers buyers. There are no killer deals here anymore.

Feel free to contact us with your questions. We're easy to talk to and we can answer any questions you might have about current market conditions, interest rates or where home prices are headed. If you're interested in talking about listing your home we'd be happy to provide our recommendations on how best to proceed.

Key prior month statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtor’s November 2012 Report show:

Total Tucson Home Sales Units: 1074, Increased 9.37% from October of 2011. Increased 14.50% from last month.

Total Tucson Homes Under Contract: 2,367, Increased 14.20% from October of 2011. Decreased 1.87% from last month.

Tucson Median Sale Price: $143,000 Up 19.17% from October 2011.
Oro Valley Median Sales Price: $265,000 Up 20.00% from October 2011.
Catalina Foothills Median Sales Price: $274,500 Down 7% from October 2011.

Total Tucson Active Listings: 4,195 Down 20.70% from 5,290 in October of 2011.
Northwest Tucson Active Listings: 1,125 Up 106 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills Active Listings: 484, Up 29 units from last month.

Total Tucson New Listings: 1,930, Up from 1,280 in October of 2011.
Northwest Tucson New Listings: 497, Up 64 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills New Listings: 185, Up 26 from last month.

Some quick conclusions we can draw from these Tucson home sales statistics are:

Positive Market Indicators this month: Average Sales Prices are up year over year, Median Sales Price up year over year, Units sold up year over year and month over month and Units Under Contract are Up year over year. Days on Market Still way below average at 49.

Negative Market Indicators this month: There are still no real negatives in this market. All indicators remain pretty positive. Another increase in active listings this month but still within the normal seasonal range. Average days on marked had a little bump up to 49 from 45 this month but remain at multi year lows.

Market Outlook: November can be tricky, it can be way up or below average. It seems to depend on how early people get in the holiday mood. We were at the mall yesterday (the 10th) and it was packed, restaurants are packed, so this might be one of those "outlayers" where November slightly under performs. However, the early snowbirds are now arriving in force so who knows, this year November is "too close to call":-)

Looking beyond November, we expect December to be busy for the first two weeks then dropping off to very low levels during the holidays. We are expecting January to be the beginning of a gang busters spring season.

Inventory remains tight: While inventory remains low, we are back above 4,000 listings for the first time in 7 months. Good news for buyers as there's a few more homes to choose from. Sellers, make sure your home shows the best that it can. Buyers remain very picky and are buying the homes that show best and passing on the mediocre ones.

Interest rates continue to bounce along at historic lows, however we expect that to change in 2013 as inflation ticks back up. Watch out for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2013. By then interest rates should be heading back up. Here's the November Heat Map.

What about the election: Thank Goodness it's over, that's what. We feel so sorry for those poor folks in the Swing States. The bombardment of election advertising and rhetoric would have driven us crazy. They're the real winners this year, having all that stop must be like a gift from heaven.

The election is not going to have any significant impact on our local housing market. We expect to see the slow grind upward continue, at least until interest rates get out of hand.

The Tucson Market Reports below will give you a detailed look inside the current Tucson Housing Market.

Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report - November 2012

Catalina Foothills Housing Report - November 2012

Oro Valley Housing Report - November 2012

2011 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

Brenda's 2011 Year End Tucson Housing Report

Tucson Housing Market Report Archives

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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