Brenda's Tucson Housing Market Report
October 2012

Fall In Southern Arizona - Life Is Good

Market Continues Improvement, Mortgage Rates Remain at Historic Lows

Average Days On Market = 45 ~ Sales Price as a % of List Price = 96.93%

We're in our best time of year now. Mild temps with warm days and cool evenings. Patio dining is very popular now and we're making the best of it. We're looking forward to a very busy fall selling season although inventory is tight. If you're a buyer, make good offers! Those low ball offers are not going to get you anything except frustrated. Sellers are firming up on their prices now, knowing inventory is tight and there's lots of buyers coming our way real soon with the snowbird season just starting.

It remains a Sellers Market with low inventories. but, it's also a Buyers Market because of the historic Low Interest Rates. We will see a slight increase in inventory as sellers who have been waiting are now getting their homes listed. Buyers, if you see something you like, don't mess around, get your offer in and don't delay. Nice homes are now often receiving multiple offers and those who dither around lose out.

The big news remains the elections in November. However, the elections will not have much effect on the housing markets. What will help the housing markets is less government control and less regulations on the lending industry. Right now there are so many rules and regulations it's extremely difficult for housing lenders to do anything.

Lets just get past the election, get the economy moving again and get people back to work. That's what will fix the housing market.

Tucson Active Listings: Active listings now stand at 3,564, a slight increase over last month.

New Listings Up: There were 1,615 New Listings in August, an Increase of 17 units from July. We did see a slight listing increase as expected last month and this trend should continue heading into the fall.

Average Sales Price: The August average sales price was $182,041, up another whopping 20.8% from $150,699 in September 2011. Another month of year over year price increases. This trend should continue.

Days on Market: Now sits at 45, down from 65 last month. We were surprised by this one. This is a huge drop in days on market indicating inventory is starting to fly off the shelves. We're not entirely sure we trust this number but that's what the Tucson Multiple Listing Service says. We will be anxious to see what this number is next month.

Feel free to contact us with your questions. We're easy to talk to and we can answer any questions you might have about current market conditions, interest rates or where home prices are headed. If you're interested in talking about listing your home we'd be happy to provide our recommendations on how best to proceed.

Key prior month statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtor’s October 2012 Report show:

Total Tucson Home Sales Units: 938, Decreased 11.84% from September of 2011. Decreased 20.44% from last month.

Total Tucson Homes Under Contract: 2,409, Increased 17.06% from September of 2011. Decreased 4.59% from last month.

Tucson Average Sale Price: $182,041 Up 20.80% from $150,699 in 2011.
Northwest Tucson Average Listing Price: $240,650 Up from $215,714 last month.
Catalina Foothills Average Listing Price: $397,255 Up from $362,143 last month.

Total Tucson Active Listings: 3,845 Down 25.41% from 5,155 in September of 2011.
Northwest Tucson Active Listings: 1,019 Up 87 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills Active Listings: 455, Up 65 units from last month.

Total Tucson New Listings: 1,632, Up from 1,256 in August of 2011.
Northwest Tucson New Listings: 423, Up 38 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills New Listings: 159, Up 24 from last month.

Some quick conclusions we can draw from these Tucson home sales statistics are:

Positive Market Indicators this month: Average Sales Prices are up year over year & month over month, Median Sales Price up year over year and Units Under Contract are Up year over year. Also Days on Market dropped Significantly this month to 45.

Negative Market Indicators this month: There are still no real negatives in this market. All indicators are positive. We did experience an increase in active listings this month but that's normal for this time of year. While total sales were lower, the average days on marked dropped to 45 indicating a lack of inventory and buyer urgency in snapping up the nice listings faster.

Market Outlook: October is the beginning of our fall season, buyers are making better offers and buying faster as indicated by the drop in days on market. We are seeing average prices continuing to improve and post strong gains over last year. We expect the fall season to be very busy, exceeding the last several years as buyers are starting to get anxious about missing the boat and sellers are seeing this period as a strong selling opportunity. We remain confident that the year will end with average sale prices up from last year.

Inventory remains very tight: Interest rates continue to bounce along at historic lows. There was a slight improvement in unemployment this month but don't expect that to change much. Low interest rates will probably continue for awhile with the FED announcing QE3. However, watch out for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2013. By then interest rates should be heading back up. Here's the October Heat Map.

What about the election: We hear both buyers and sellers commenting on the impact of the election on their sale price or the timing of their purchase.

Folks, don't get too bound up in this, the election is not going to have any significant impact on local housing market conditions. Whoever gets elected still has a mess to deal with and Congress is probably not going to get any more cooperative so gridlock will probably remain with us for some time.

The Tucson Market Reports below will give you a detailed look inside the current Tucson Housing Market.

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
Email Brenda or call her Today at 520-918-5968
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