Brenda's Tucson Housing Market Report
March 2009

February Statistics show marked Improvement over January

February was good. Almost every statistic for February showed improvement over January. Total Sales Volume, Average and Median Sales Prices, Pending Sales and Total Units Sold all showed significant positive improvements. Active Listings and New Listings were both in decline which is very positive for this market.

It's interesting to watch, the numbers keep gradually improving almost every month but the market is still stuck in the mud. Why is that? Well, it's all about the economy. Everybody knows now is the time to buy with prices down significantly and interest rates at record lows but almost everybody is very worried about the future of the economy. Some brave souls are jumping in now and will probably be rewarded richly in a couple years but most are just waiting it out.

We Still Expect 2009 to be a Recovery Year. We believe that the U.S. Economy will improve gradually throughout 09 and into 2010 and that our local market will follow that same pattern.

We're just in a holding pattern now, waiting for things to improve gradually and the market to pick up. It will, if history is any indication, and we see higher prices coming.

It's Going To be Gradual, but we strongly believe that 2009 will be a better year than 2008 and at the end of the year it will be obvious to all, that we are past the bottom.

Key prior month statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtor’s March 2009 Report show:

Total Tucson Home Sales Units: 659, Decreased .75% from February 2008. Increased 12.07% from last month.

Total Tucson Pending Sales: 1020, Decreased 22.55% from February 2008. Increased 8.4% from last month.

Tucson Average Sale Price: $222,207, Down 12.65% from $254,381 in 2008.
Northwest Tucson Average Sale Price: $260,531 Down from $269,464 last month.
Catalina Foothills Average Sale Price: $428,753 Down from $458,242 last month.

Total Tucson Active Listings: 7,532, Down 17.84% from 9,168 in February of 2008.
Northwest Tucson Active Listings: 2,029, Down 24 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills Active Listings: 790, Up 10 units from last month.

Total Tucson New Listings: 1,799, Down 26.03% from 2,432 in February of 2008.
Northwest Tucson New Listings: 460, Down 188 units from last month.
Catalina Foothills New Listings: 187, Down 89 units from last month.

Some quick conclusions we draw from these Tucson home sales statistics are:

Positive Market Indicators this month. Active Listings continue their steady decline, we had well over 9,100 active listings this time last year. Slowly declining Average Sales Price is a Positive Factor as buyers are now seeing Value in this market (the only thing holding them back is the uncertainty in the economic markets, people are just scared and waiting it out). Current Interest Rates remain at historic lows. Recently passed legislation will save many homeowners from foreclosure and that will reduce the number of new listings coming on the market. One new positive just in shows a significant jump in Condo Sales in San Diego! The fence sitters over there are jumping into the condo market with both feet. Lets hope this is a sign of things to come.

Negative Market Indicators this month. The Economy Sucks and people are waiting and that's the whole problem. Foreclosures and Short Sales are still affecting our market but this will start being less of a factor as we get those situations washed out of the system. Yes, foreclosures will keep coming onto the market but probably in lesser numbers as most of the weak ones are already in the system and the new stimulus package should save many from foreclosure.

At the Bottom. We think we're at the bottom. Average Sales prices ticked up quite a bit from January. We may be able to look back and say, Yup, January of 09 was the bottom. We hope so and will be watching average sales and median sales prices closely for the next few months. Basically it all boils down to public perception of the economy. As soon as the public perceives some improvement in the Economy things will pick up.

The Tucson Market Reports below will give you a detailed look inside the current Tucson Housing Market.

March 2009 Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

2009 March Housing Report - Northwest Tucson

2009 March Housing Report - Catalina Foothills

2008 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

Brenda's 2008 Year End Tucson Housing Report

Tucson Housing Market Report Archives

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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