Brenda's 2012 Year End
Tucson Housing Market Report

2012 - Tucson's Housing Market Shows Steady Improvement

We sold more homes in 2012: Sales were very strong in 2012. All in all we ended up with 106 Units Sold in 2012 which is 31 more than in 2011 so it was a very successful year. I want to Thank all our clients who put their faith in us last year! We're looking forward to another banner year in 2013.

The country is finally emerging from the recession The mood of the country in now guardedly positive as we emerge from the worst recession in recent history. It's been slow and it's going to continue slow but we are back on the road to economic recovery and the public senses that. Almost all economic indicators are positive and the outlook for the economy is excellent looking forward. This bodes well for real estate in the coming year and we're excited about that.

Lending Requirements Still Tight The pendulum remains totally unbalanced and stuck in the extreme caution side of the equation. Current lending requirements are onerous and totally out of wack with reality. Yes, there needs to be a strengthening of lending requirements to make sure only "Good Loans" are made but today's requirements border on ridiculous. This will change, but it's going to take time. We expected to see steady improvement in the lending arena in 2012 but that did not happen. We are hopeful that things will improve in 2013.

The market improved steadily throughout 2012 Last year at this time we thought the market had turned but were not positive. Now we are! This market improved steadily throughout the year. Prices are improving almost every month and we predict that trend will continue throughout 2013. Unemployment remains stubbornly high but that too should improve somewhat in the coming year helping the real estate market even further.

2013 will be a another Good Year! We expect 2013 will be another excellent year here in Tucson. We expect the year over year price increases experienced in 2012 to continue throughout 2013. We do think that listing inventory will remain tight throughout 2013 and we expect to remain in a limited inventory mode throughout the year. We expect to see fewer and fewer "distressed properties" being listed as that market segment continues to decline this coming year.

The Train has left the Station This market is definitely heading up. If you're not onboard yet, you better run to catch the train! We're in for a nice long comfortable ride ahead. The next few years are going to be good ones, sit back and enjoy the ride. It's not going to be a fast and furious, but it's gonna be fun.

Other Tucson Housing experts speak out: This recent Arizona Daily Star article has local housing market experts speaking to the outlook for 2013; "Pima housing experts upbeat"

The Tucson Multiple Listing Service has released their Year End Report for 2012. If you like digging into the details this report is full of them.

"2012 Tucson MLS Statistics" Key year end statistics for 2012 are presented below.

Tucson Home Sales Volume: We predicted in the 2011 Year End Report that volume would increase in 2012 and so it has. The Volume (total dollars) of sales increased from $2.194 Billion in 2011 to $2.480 Billion in 2012 reflecting the increase in both average sales price and number of units sold. We expect to see another increase in total sales volume in 2013.

Tucson Home Sales Units: Total units sold for 2012 were 14,236 an increase of 818 more homes sold than in 2011. It is obvious now that a new uptrend is underway.

Tucson Average Sale Price (all residential types): Average Sales Prices Increased from $163,527 at the end of 2011 to $174,253 at the end of 2012 reversing 4 years of declining prices. This will be the beginning of several years of increasing average sales prices. Prices should increase slowly but steadily for the next few years.

Sales as a % of Listing Price: At the end of 2012 sellers were obtaining 96.41% of asking price as compared to 94.42% at the end of 2011.

Tucson Average Days on Market: Days on market (DOM) is actually tracked 2 ways here. There is the "Current" DOM" which reflects the "Current Listing". Then there is the "Cumulative DOM" which reflects the current listing plus any prior listings for the property that are basically the same effort to sell this home in recent history.

For example; if a home was listed on January 1, then withdrawn on January 30 and re-listed on February 1 and it is now February 15, the current DOM is 15 while the Cumulative DOM is 45. For the purposes of this report we track Cumulative DOM. 2011 DOM was 107, In 2012 DOM decreased to 75.

It's all Realtor Politics, but it's misleading & confusing for buyers. We believe this data should be fully transparent & disclosed to all parties. We believe the MLS should only use the cumulative Days On Market data as it truly reflects how long the home has been for sale.

As we review this data from the Tucson Multiple Listing service we can draw some quick conclusions from these 2012 Tucson home sales statistics:

Prices were UP across the board in 2012. The economy is now definitely improving, albeit slowly and public confidence is gradually improving. As the economy and public confidence continues to improve so to will the real estate markets.

Inventory Continued to Decline in 2012. Although the MLS Year End Report is silent on Active Inventory, it did in fact decline further in 2012. At year end 2012 active inventory stood at 4,449 units for sale as compared with 4,911 units for sale at the end of 2011. It is almost time in the cycle for inventory to begin starting to climb back to higher levels. We expect inventory to remain stable or increase slightly in 2013.

Interest rates holding steady. We predicted that interest rates would rise in 2012 and again they did not. The federal government thru various manipulations of the financial markets are forcing interest rates to remain low in an effort to stimulate the economy. This financial stimulus cannot continue forever and at some point interest rates will climb back to higher levels. We now expect to see interest rates stable to slightly higher in 2013 with rates beginning to climb significantly in 2014 as inflationary pressures build.

The 2012 Year End Tucson Market Report below will give you a detailed look inside the 2012 Tucson Housing Market.

2012 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

2011 Tucson Housing Report
2010 Tucson Housing Report
2009 Tucson Housing Report
2008 Tucson Housing Report
2007 Tucson Housing Report
2006 Tucson Housing Report

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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