Brenda's 2013 Year End
Tucson Housing Market Report

Slow Steady Grind Upward Continued Throughout 2013

We sold a ton of homes in 2013: Sales continued strong in 2013. All in all we ended up with 94 Units Sold in 2013 with our average sale price per unit increasing so it was a very successful year. I want to Thank all our clients who trusted us with their real estate needs last year! We anticipate another banner year in 2014.

The economics of the country is slowly improving but the politics remains a total mess It's been slow and it's going to continue slow but we're solidly back on the road to economic recovery, however it seems like it's taking forever. Maybe the coming year will be a breakout year and the economy will start humming along like we all want. Lets all keep our fingers crossed. One of the brightest spots in this tepid recovery is that Real Estate is leading the way with increasing sales and job creation. 2014 should again show Real Estate leading the economic recovery higher.

Lending Requirements Remain Tight As we head into 2014, Mortgage Lending remains tight. One would think that with the FED flooding the economy with liquidity that lenders might actually make more loans. But, to be fair to the lenders, the constant barrage of new regulations & requirements coming down on them make their business much more difficult. It's actually amazing that they are able to make as many loans as they do. Used to be you could make a loan quickly and easily with half the paperwork but those days are long gone.

Last year we were hopeful that things would improve in the lending arena in 2013 but unfortunately that did not occur. We now expect 2014 to be more of the same so if you're going after a loan be prepared to deal with additional requirements, long waits, more costs and a frustrating experience.

The market continued to improve throughout 2013 The market is now locked solidly in a slow steady Uptrend. Prices are increasing almost every month and that trend will continue throughout 2014. Unemployment nationwide is slowly coming down which should lead to more buyers entering the market going forward which will help the real estate market continue to improve.

2014 will be a another Good Solid Year! We expect 2014 will be another excellent year here in Tucson. We expect the year over year price increases experienced in 2013 to continue throughout 2014 baring any unexpected huge spike in interest rates. Interest rates will continue to climb but we now see that as another slow steady grind upward. Interest rates could be nudging the 5% range by the end of 2014. We think that listing inventory will start to increase slightly throughout 2014 with more sellers entering the market due to increasing prices.

The Train keeps chugging along This market continues heading up. If you're on the train (and you should be by now) we're in for a nice long comfortable ride ahead. The next few years are going to be good ones so sit back and enjoy the ride. It's not going to be a fast and furious, but it's gonna be fun. If you're not on the train yet, the tickets are more expensive now than a year ago but you can still get on. Real Estate remains the largest personal asset of millions of Americans and values should continue to increase for several years to come.

The Tucson Multiple Listing Service has released their Year End Report for 2013. If you like digging into the details this report is full of them.

"2013 Tucson MLS Statistics" Key year end statistics for 2013 are presented below.

Tucson Home Sales Volume: We predicted in the 2012 Year End Report that volume would increase in 2013 and so it has. The Volume (total dollars) of sales increased from $2.480 Billion in 2012 to $2.836 Billion in 2013 reflecting the increase in both average sales price and number of units sold. We expect to see another increase in total sales volume in 2014.

Tucson Home Sales Units: Total units sold for 2013 were 14,819 an increase of 583 more homes sold than in 2012. It is obvious now that the uptrend in units sold is firmly in place.

Tucson Average Sale Price (all residential types): Average Sales Prices Increased from $174,253 at the end of 2012 to $191,399 at the end of 2013 further documenting that the uptrend in Average Sales Prices is intact. This uptrend of increasing average sales prices should continue for the next few years at least.

Sales as a % of Listing Price: At the end of 2013 sellers were obtaining 96.86% of asking price as compared to 96.41% at the end of 2012.

Tucson Average Days on Market: Days on market (DOM) is actually tracked 2 ways here. There is the "Current" DOM" which reflects the "Current Listing". Then there is the "Cumulative DOM" which reflects the current listing plus any prior listings for the property that are basically the same effort to sell this home in recent history.

For example; if a home was listed on January 1, then withdrawn on January 30 and re-listed on February 1 and it is now February 15, the current DOM is 15 while the Cumulative DOM is 45. For the purposes of this report we track Cumulative DOM. 2012 DOM was 75, In 2013 DOM decreased to 69.

It's all Realtor Politics, but it's misleading & confusing for buyers. We believe this data should be fully transparent & disclosed to all parties. We believe the MLS should only use the cumulative Days On Market data as it truly reflects how long the home has been for sale.

As we review this data from the Tucson Multiple Listing service we can draw some quick conclusions from these 2013 Tucson home sales statistics:

Prices were UP across the board in 2013. The economy is continuing to slowly improve and public confidence is gradually improving. As the economy and public confidence continues to improve so to will the real estate markets.

Active Inventory Increased Slightly in 2013. Although the 2013 MLS Year End Report is silent on Active Inventory, it did increase slightly in 2013. At year end 2013 active inventory stood at 5,150 units for sale as compared with 4,449 units for sale at the end of 2012. Last year in this segment we predicted "It is almost time in the cycle for inventory to begin starting to climb back to higher levels. We expect inventory to remain stable or increase slightly in 2013." That is in fact, exactly what happened.

Interest rates starting to climb. Here's what we said last year: "We now expect to see interest rates stable to slightly higher in 2013 with rates beginning to climb significantly in 2014 as inflationary pressures build." While rates did increase dramatically in late 2013, they have backed down in early 2014 but don't be fooled, rates will go back up soon and could approach 5% by the end of 2014.

2013 Mortgage Rates 30 year fixed

The 2013 Year End Tucson Market Report below will give you a detailed look inside the 2013 Tucson Housing Market.

2013 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

Brenda's 2013 Year End Housing Market Report

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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